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Internacional SC vs Uberlandia — Serie D 2018

Internacional SC
Internacional SC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Uberlandia
Uberlandia
6/4/2018Serie DSerie D · 16th FinalsEstádio Vidal Ramos Júnior (Lages, Santa Catarina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Internacional SC34%
×Draw26%
Uberlandia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional SC
1.25
Uberlandia
1.39

Uberlandia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 29 away

creates per match

Internacional SC
1.50
Uberlandia
1.28

allows per match

Internacional SC
1.50
Uberlandia
1.00

finishing

Internacional SC+0.00on par
Uberlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional SC ↓

Uberlandia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Internacional SC or draw
60%
Internacional SC or Uberlandia
74%
Draw or Uberlandia
66%

Winning margin

Internacional SC wins by 2+
14%
Uberlandia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Internacional SC 1+ goals
71%
Internacional SC 2+ goals
36%
Internacional SC 3+ goals
13%
Uberlandia 1+ goals
75%
Uberlandia 2+ goals
40%
Uberlandia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Internacional SC (draw refunded)
46%
Uberlandia (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional SC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Uberlandia away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional SC attack 1.50 + Uberlandia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Uberlandia attack 1.28 + Internacional SC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Internacional SC scores more
34%
level
26%
Uberlandia scores more
40%

Uberlandia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Uberlandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Internacional SC 1–0 Uberlandia

Internacional SC beat Uberlandia 1-0 in Serie D on June 4, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Vidal Ramos Júnior (Lages, Santa Catarina).