Internacional SC 1–1 Juventus SC: Result & Stats

Internacional SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Juventus SC

5/28/2023

Catarinense - 2 · Round 1Estádio Vidal Ramos Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Internacional SC41%

×Draw33%

Juventus SC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional SCExpected goals in this matchJuventus SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.76

Internacional SC

1.02

Juventus SC

0.76

Internacional SC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 24 away

0.92

creates per match

0.83

0.69

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Internacional SC

0.92

Juventus SC

0.83

allows per match

Internacional SC

0.69

Juventus SC

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional SC+0.00on par

Juventus SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional SC ↓

Juventus SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Internacional SC or draw

73%

Internacional SC or Juventus SC

67%

Draw or Juventus SC

59%

Winning margin

Internacional SC wins by 2+

16%

Juventus SC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Internacional SC 1+ goals

64%

Internacional SC 2+ goals

27%

Internacional SC 3+ goals

8%

Juventus SC 1+ goals

53%

Juventus SC 2+ goals

18%

Juventus SC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Internacional SC (draw refunded)

61%

Juventus SC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional SC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Juventus SC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional SC attack 0.92 + Juventus SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Juventus SC attack 0.83 + Internacional SC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Internacional SC scores more

41%

level

33%

Juventus SC scores more

27%

Internacional SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Internacional SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff