Internacional SC 1–1 Carlos Renaux: Result & Stats

Internacional SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Carlos Renaux

8/7/2022

Catarinense - 2 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Vidal Ramos Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Internacional SC39%

×Draw31%

Carlos Renaux30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional SCExpected goals in this matchCarlos Renaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.89

Internacional SC

1.07

Carlos Renaux

0.89

Internacional SC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 22 away

0.92

creates per match

1.09

0.69

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Internacional SC

0.92

Carlos Renaux

1.09

allows per match

Internacional SC

0.69

Carlos Renaux

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional SC+0.00on par

Carlos Renaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional SC ↓

Carlos Renaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Internacional SC or draw

70%

Internacional SC or Carlos Renaux

69%

Draw or Carlos Renaux

61%

Winning margin

Internacional SC wins by 2+

16%

Carlos Renaux wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional SC 1+ goals

66%

Internacional SC 2+ goals

29%

Internacional SC 3+ goals

9%

Carlos Renaux 1+ goals

59%

Carlos Renaux 2+ goals

22%

Carlos Renaux 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Internacional SC (draw refunded)

57%

Carlos Renaux (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional SC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Carlos Renaux away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional SC attack 0.92 + Carlos Renaux defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Carlos Renaux attack 1.09 + Internacional SC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Internacional SC scores more

39%

level

31%

Carlos Renaux scores more

30%

Internacional SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Internacional SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff