Internacional SC U20 0–3 Hercílio Luz U20

Internacional SC U20

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Hercílio Luz U20

6/14/2024

Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 16Estádio Vidal Ramos Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Internacional SC U2011%

×Draw15%

Hercílio Luz U2075%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional SC U20Expected goals in this matchHercílio Luz U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

2.82

Internacional SC U20

0.98

Hercílio Luz U20

2.82

Hercílio Luz U20 creates 188% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

0.40

creates per match

1.55

4.10

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Internacional SC U20

0.40

Hercílio Luz U20

1.55

allows per match

Internacional SC U20

4.10

Hercílio Luz U20

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional SC U20+0.00on par

Hercílio Luz U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional SC U20 ↓

Hercílio Luz U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–29%

0–39%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Internacional SC U20 or draw

25%

Internacional SC U20 or Hercílio Luz U20

85%

Draw or Hercílio Luz U20

89%

Winning margin

Internacional SC U20 wins by 2+

3%

Hercílio Luz U20 wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Internacional SC U20 1+ goals

62%

Internacional SC U20 2+ goals

26%

Internacional SC U20 3+ goals

8%

Hercílio Luz U20 1+ goals

94%

Hercílio Luz U20 2+ goals

77%

Hercílio Luz U20 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Internacional SC U20 (draw refunded)

12%

Hercílio Luz U20 (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional SC U20 at home — creates 0.40, concedes 4.10 · 10 matches

Hercílio Luz U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional SC U20 attack 0.40 + Hercílio Luz U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 0.98

Hercílio Luz U20 attack 1.55 + Internacional SC U20 defence 4.10 → ÷2 → 2.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Internacional SC U20 scores more

11%

level

15%

Hercílio Luz U20 scores more

75%

Hercílio Luz U20 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Hercílio Luz U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff