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Internacional SC U20 vs Avaí U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Internacional SC U20
Internacional SC U20
FT
1 – 3
Avaí U20
Avaí U20
7/19/2024Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 22Estádio Vidal Ramos Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Internacional SC U207%
×Draw12%
Avaí U2081%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional SC U20
0.78
Avaí U20
2.97

Avaí U20 creates 281% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 25 away

creates per match

Internacional SC U20
0.40
Avaí U20
1.84

allows per match

Internacional SC U20
4.10
Avaí U20
1.16

finishing

Internacional SC U20+0.00on par
Avaí U20+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional SC U20 ↓

Avaí U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–211%
0–311%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Internacional SC U20 or draw
19%
Internacional SC U20 or Avaí U20
88%
Draw or Avaí U20
93%

Winning margin

Internacional SC U20 wins by 2+
2%
Avaí U20 wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Internacional SC U20 1+ goals
54%
Internacional SC U20 2+ goals
18%
Internacional SC U20 3+ goals
4%
Avaí U20 1+ goals
95%
Avaí U20 2+ goals
79%
Avaí U20 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Internacional SC U20 (draw refunded)
8%
Avaí U20 (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional SC U20 at home — creates 0.40, concedes 4.10 · 10 matches

Avaí U20 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional SC U20 attack 0.40 + Avaí U20 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.78

Avaí U20 attack 1.84 + Internacional SC U20 defence 4.10 → ÷2 → 2.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Internacional SC U20 scores more
7%
level
12%
Avaí U20 scores more
81%

Avaí U20 at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Avaí U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense U20: Internacional SC U20 1–3 Avaí U20

Avaí U20 beat Internacional SC U20 3-1 in Catarinense U20 on July 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Vidal Ramos Júnior in Lages, Santa Catarina.