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Internacional RS W vs Sport Recife W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Internacional RS W
Internacional RS W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Sport Recife W
Sport Recife W
4/27/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 6Estádio do Parque Esportivo da PUCRS (Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Internacional RS W68%
×Draw18%
Sport Recife W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional RS W
2.33
Sport Recife W
0.95

Internacional RS W creates 145% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 23 away

creates per match

Internacional RS W
1.70
Sport Recife W
0.78

allows per match

Internacional RS W
1.13
Sport Recife W
2.96

finishing

Internacional RS W+0.00on par
Sport Recife W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional RS W ↓

Sport Recife W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Internacional RS W or draw
86%
Internacional RS W or Sport Recife W
82%
Draw or Sport Recife W
32%

Winning margin

Internacional RS W wins by 2+
45%
Sport Recife W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Internacional RS W 1+ goals
90%
Internacional RS W 2+ goals
67%
Internacional RS W 3+ goals
41%
Sport Recife W 1+ goals
61%
Sport Recife W 2+ goals
25%
Sport Recife W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)
83%
Sport Recife W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional RS W at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Sport Recife W away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional RS W attack 1.70 + Sport Recife W defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.33

Sport Recife W attack 0.78 + Internacional RS W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Internacional RS W scores more
68%
level
18%
Sport Recife W scores more
14%

Internacional RS W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Internacional RS W vs Sport Recife W

Internacional RS W beat Sport Recife W 4-0 in Brasileiro Women on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Parque Esportivo da PUCRS (Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul).