Internacional RS W 2–1 Real Brasília W

Internacional RS W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Brasília W

5/28/2022

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 10Campo do SESC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Internacional RS W59%

×Draw22%

Real Brasília W19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional RS WExpected goals in this matchReal Brasília W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.97

Internacional RS W

1.89

Real Brasília W

0.97

Internacional RS W creates 95% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 40 away

1.70

creates per match

0.82

1.13

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Internacional RS W

1.70

Real Brasília W

0.82

allows per match

Internacional RS W

1.13

Real Brasília W

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Real Brasília W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional RS W ↓

Real Brasília W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Internacional RS W or draw

81%

Internacional RS W or Real Brasília W

78%

Draw or Real Brasília W

41%

Winning margin

Internacional RS W wins by 2+

34%

Real Brasília W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Internacional RS W 1+ goals

85%

Internacional RS W 2+ goals

56%

Internacional RS W 3+ goals

29%

Real Brasília W 1+ goals

62%

Real Brasília W 2+ goals

25%

Real Brasília W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)

76%

Real Brasília W (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional RS W at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Real Brasília W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional RS W attack 1.70 + Real Brasília W defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.89

Real Brasília W attack 0.82 + Internacional RS W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Internacional RS W scores more

59%

level

22%

Real Brasília W scores more

19%

Internacional RS W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff