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Internacional RS W vs Gremio Osasco Audax W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Internacional RS W
Internacional RS W
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Gremio Osasco Audax W
Gremio Osasco Audax W
7/18/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 12Estádio do Parque Esportivo da PUCRS (Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Internacional RS W65%
×Draw19%
Gremio Osasco Audax W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional RS W
2.19
Gremio Osasco Audax W
0.97

Internacional RS W creates 126% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 22 away

creates per match

Internacional RS W
1.70
Gremio Osasco Audax W
0.82

allows per match

Internacional RS W
1.13
Gremio Osasco Audax W
2.68

finishing

Internacional RS W+0.00on par
Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional RS W ↓

Gremio Osasco Audax W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Internacional RS W or draw
84%
Internacional RS W or Gremio Osasco Audax W
81%
Draw or Gremio Osasco Audax W
35%

Winning margin

Internacional RS W wins by 2+
41%
Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Internacional RS W 1+ goals
89%
Internacional RS W 2+ goals
64%
Internacional RS W 3+ goals
37%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals
62%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals
25%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)
81%
Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional RS W at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional RS W attack 1.70 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.19

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 0.82 + Internacional RS W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Internacional RS W scores more
65%
level
19%
Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more
16%

Internacional RS W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Internacional RS W 5–1 Gremio Osasco Audax W

Internacional RS W beat Gremio Osasco Audax W 5-1 in Brasileiro Women on July 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Parque Esportivo da PUCRS (Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul).