Internacional RS W 2–1 Ceará W: Result & Stats

Internacional RS W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Ceará W

B. Aquino 41', 14'

Ju Oliveira 36'

6/3/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 14Estádio do Vale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Internacional RS W89%

×Draw8%

Ceará W4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional RS WExpected goals in this matchCeará W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.73

0.69

Internacional RS W

3.73

Ceará W

0.69

Internacional RS W creates 441% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 8 away

1.70

creates per match

0.25

1.13

allows per match

5.75

creates per match

Internacional RS W

1.70

Ceará W

0.25

allows per match

Internacional RS W

1.13

Ceará W

5.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Ceará W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional RS W ↓

Ceará W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Internacional RS W or draw

96%

Internacional RS W or Ceará W

92%

Draw or Ceará W

11%

Winning margin

Internacional RS W wins by 2+

74%

Ceará W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Internacional RS W 1+ goals

97%

Internacional RS W 2+ goals

88%

Internacional RS W 3+ goals

69%

Ceará W 1+ goals

50%

Ceará W 2+ goals

15%

Ceará W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)

96%

Ceará W (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional RS W at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Ceará W away — creates 0.25, concedes 5.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional RS W attack 1.70 + Ceará W defence 5.75 → ÷2 → 3.73

Ceará W attack 0.25 + Internacional RS W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Internacional RS W scores more

89%

level

8%

Ceará W scores more

4%

Internacional RS W at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

B. Aquino

21'

Tamara

31'

R. Maisa

36'

Ju Oliveira

39'

R. Maisa

39'

R. Maisa

41'

B. Aquino

46'

F. Gauto← Pati Llanos

46'

48'

68'

69'

72'

73'

Analuyza← Djeni

73'

Liliane← Maria Luiza

83'

Marcia← Karen

86'

Carol Gil← Eskerdinha

88'

Ester← Ju Oliveira

Internacional

Ceará

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: Mauricio Salgado

46'▲F. Gauto←▼Pati Llanos

46'▲F. Sandoval←▼Tamara

69'▲Mileninha←▼Priscila

73'▲Analuyza←▼Djeni

86'▲Carol Gil←▼Eskerdinha

Internacional RS W substitutes

GautoSandovalMileninhaAnaluyzaGilGoedertBikCarlaKetlinRibeiroMarziaJesus

Manager: David Lopes

73'▲Liliane←▼Maria Luiza

83'▲Marcia←▼Karen

88'▲Ester←▼Ju Oliveira

Ceará W substitutes

LilianeMarciaEsterAlvesSoaresSorrisoGabizinhaVitóriaSantos