Internacional RS W 2–1 Athletico Paranaense W

Internacional RS W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Athletico Paranaense W

Priscila 77', 70'

Nathália 38'

2/25/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 1Campo do SESC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Internacional RS W60%

×Draw22%

Athletico Paranaense W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional RS WExpected goals in this matchAthletico Paranaense W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.94

Internacional RS W

1.92

Athletico Paranaense W

0.94

Internacional RS W creates 104% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 8 away

1.70

creates per match

0.75

1.13

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Internacional RS W

1.70

Athletico Paranaense W

0.75

allows per match

Internacional RS W

1.13

Athletico Paranaense W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Athletico Paranaense W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional RS W ↓

Athletico Paranaense W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Internacional RS W or draw

82%

Internacional RS W or Athletico Paranaense W

78%

Draw or Athletico Paranaense W

40%

Winning margin

Internacional RS W wins by 2+

36%

Athletico Paranaense W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Internacional RS W 1+ goals

85%

Internacional RS W 2+ goals

57%

Internacional RS W 3+ goals

30%

Athletico Paranaense W 1+ goals

61%

Athletico Paranaense W 2+ goals

24%

Athletico Paranaense W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)

77%

Athletico Paranaense W (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional RS W at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Athletico Paranaense W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional RS W attack 1.70 + Athletico Paranaense W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.92

Athletico Paranaense W attack 0.75 + Internacional RS W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Internacional RS W scores more

60%

level

22%

Athletico Paranaense W scores more

18%

Internacional RS W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

Nathália

46'

B. Aquino← Gabriele Berchon

46'

Priscila← Mileninha

62'

Analuyza← Roberta

64'

Joyce← Thayslane

67'

Marzia← Djeni

70'

Priscila

71'

Maiara Fraga← Nathália

71'

Verônica Marques← Lilian

77'

Priscila

82'

Giovanna← Rafinha

84'

Carol Gil← Tamara

Internacional

Athletico

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Mauricio Salgado

46'▲B. Aquino←▼Gabriele Berchon

46'▲Priscila←▼Mileninha

62'▲Analuyza←▼Roberta

67'▲Marzia←▼Djeni

84'▲Carol Gil←▼Tamara

Internacional RS W substitutes

AquinoPriscilaAnaluyzaMarziaGilGoedertBárbaraBikCarlaTeixeiraFrankeMayara

Manager: Brenno

64'▲Joyce←▼Thayslane

71'▲Maiara Fraga←▼Nathália

71'▲Verônica Marques←▼Lilian

82'▲Giovanna←▼Rafinha

Athletico Paranaense W substitutes

JoyceFragaMarquesGiovannaAlêDudaVergaraVitóriaRenatinha

Match Recap: Internacional RS W vs Athletico Paranaense W

Internacional RS W beat Athletico Paranaense W 2-1 in Brasileiro Women on February 25, 2023.

Goals: Nathália (38'), Priscila (70', 77').

The match was played at Campo do SESC in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.

Internacional RS W vs Athletico Paranaense W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional RS W vs Athletico Paranaense W