Internacional RS W 1–0 3B da Amazônia W

Internacional RS W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

3B da Amazônia W

5/4/2025

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 9Campo do SESC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Internacional RS W83%

×Draw11%

3B da Amazônia W6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional RS WExpected goals in this match3B da Amazônia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.35

0.88

Internacional RS W

3.35

3B da Amazônia W

0.88

Internacional RS W creates 281% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 8 away

1.70

creates per match

0.63

1.13

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Internacional RS W

1.70

3B da Amazônia W

0.63

allows per match

Internacional RS W

1.13

3B da Amazônia W

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional RS W+0.00on par

3B da Amazônia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional RS W ↓

3B da Amazônia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Internacional RS W or draw

94%

Internacional RS W or 3B da Amazônia W

89%

Draw or 3B da Amazônia W

17%

Winning margin

Internacional RS W wins by 2+

65%

3B da Amazônia W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Internacional RS W 1+ goals

96%

Internacional RS W 2+ goals

84%

Internacional RS W 3+ goals

63%

3B da Amazônia W 1+ goals

59%

3B da Amazônia W 2+ goals

22%

3B da Amazônia W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)

93%

3B da Amazônia W (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional RS W at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

3B da Amazônia W away — creates 0.63, concedes 5.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional RS W attack 1.70 + 3B da Amazônia W defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.35

3B da Amazônia W attack 0.63 + Internacional RS W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Internacional RS W scores more

83%

level

11%

3B da Amazônia W scores more

6%

Internacional RS W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff