Internacional Podgorica 1–4 Mladost Lješkopolje

Internacional Podgorica

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Mladost Lješkopolje

L. Rakocevic 90+2'

B. Kopitovic 68'

D. Jovicic 46'

N. Pavlicevic 16'

M. Vracar 12'

4/20/2024

Second League · Round 30Stadion Trešnjica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Internacional Podgorica33%

×Draw25%

Mladost Lješkopolje41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchMladost Lješkopolje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.46

Internacional Podgorica

1.29

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.46

Mladost Lješkopolje creates 13% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 69 away

1.00

creates per match

1.20

1.72

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Internacional Podgorica

1.00

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.20

allows per match

Internacional Podgorica

1.72

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional Podgorica+0.00on par

Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Podgorica ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Internacional Podgorica or draw

59%

Internacional Podgorica or Mladost Lješkopolje

75%

Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje

67%

Winning margin

Internacional Podgorica wins by 2+

15%

Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Internacional Podgorica 1+ goals

72%

Internacional Podgorica 2+ goals

37%

Internacional Podgorica 3+ goals

14%

Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals

77%

Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals

43%

Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Internacional Podgorica (draw refunded)

45%

Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Podgorica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 36 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Podgorica attack 1.00 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.20 + Internacional Podgorica defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Internacional Podgorica scores more

33%

level

25%

Mladost Lješkopolje scores more

41%

Mladost Lješkopolje at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mladost Lješkopolje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Vracar

16'

N. Pavlicevic

46'

D. Jovicic

68'

B. Kopitovic

90+2'

L. Rakocevic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff