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Internacional Podgorica vs Iskra — Second League 2019

Internacional Podgorica
Internacional Podgorica
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Iskra
Iskra
3/24/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 25Stadion Trešnjica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Internacional Podgorica29%
×Draw27%
Iskra44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional Podgorica
1.08
Iskra
1.40

Iskra creates 30% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 52 away

creates per match

Internacional Podgorica
1.00
Iskra
1.08

allows per match

Internacional Podgorica
1.72
Iskra
1.17

finishing

Internacional Podgorica+0.00on par
Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Podgorica ↓

Iskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Internacional Podgorica or draw
56%
Internacional Podgorica or Iskra
73%
Draw or Iskra
71%

Winning margin

Internacional Podgorica wins by 2+
11%
Iskra wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Internacional Podgorica 1+ goals
66%
Internacional Podgorica 2+ goals
29%
Internacional Podgorica 3+ goals
10%
Iskra 1+ goals
75%
Iskra 2+ goals
41%
Iskra 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Internacional Podgorica (draw refunded)
40%
Iskra (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Podgorica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 36 matches

Iskra away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Podgorica attack 1.00 + Iskra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Iskra attack 1.08 + Internacional Podgorica defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Internacional Podgorica scores more
29%
level
27%
Iskra scores more
44%

Iskra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Iskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Internacional Podgorica 1–0 Iskra

Internacional Podgorica beat Iskra 1-0 in Second League on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Trešnjica in Golubovci.