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Internacional Podgorica vs Berane — Second League 2019

Internacional Podgorica
Internacional Podgorica
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Berane
Berane
10/25/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 13Pomocni teren FK Sutjeska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Internacional Podgorica34%
×Draw26%
Berane40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional Podgorica
1.23
Berane
1.35

Berane creates 10% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 89 away

creates per match

Internacional Podgorica
1.00
Berane
0.98

allows per match

Internacional Podgorica
1.72
Berane
1.47

finishing

Internacional Podgorica+0.00on par
Berane+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Podgorica ↓

Berane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Internacional Podgorica or draw
60%
Internacional Podgorica or Berane
74%
Draw or Berane
66%

Winning margin

Internacional Podgorica wins by 2+
14%
Berane wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Internacional Podgorica 1+ goals
71%
Internacional Podgorica 2+ goals
35%
Internacional Podgorica 3+ goals
13%
Berane 1+ goals
74%
Berane 2+ goals
39%
Berane 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Internacional Podgorica (draw refunded)
46%
Berane (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Podgorica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 36 matches

Berane away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.47 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Podgorica attack 1.00 + Berane defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Berane attack 0.98 + Internacional Podgorica defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Internacional Podgorica scores more
34%
level
26%
Berane scores more
40%

Berane at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Berane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Internacional Podgorica 0–0 Berane

Internacional Podgorica and Berane drew 0-0 in Second League on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Pomocni teren FK Sutjeska.