Internacional Palmira W 1–0 Once Caldas W

Internacional Palmira W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Once Caldas W

3/2/2025

Liga Femenina · Group Stage - 2Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Internacional Palmira W53%

×Draw27%

Once Caldas W19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional Palmira WExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.73

Internacional Palmira W

1.42

Once Caldas W

0.73

Internacional Palmira W creates 95% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 14 away

1.33

creates per match

0.43

1.04

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Internacional Palmira W

1.33

Once Caldas W

0.43

allows per match

Internacional Palmira W

1.04

Once Caldas W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional Palmira W+0.00on par

Once Caldas W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Palmira W ↓

Once Caldas W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Internacional Palmira W or draw

81%

Internacional Palmira W or Once Caldas W

73%

Draw or Once Caldas W

47%

Winning margin

Internacional Palmira W wins by 2+

27%

Once Caldas W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Internacional Palmira W 1+ goals

76%

Internacional Palmira W 2+ goals

41%

Internacional Palmira W 3+ goals

17%

Once Caldas W 1+ goals

52%

Once Caldas W 2+ goals

17%

Once Caldas W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Internacional Palmira W (draw refunded)

74%

Once Caldas W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Palmira W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Once Caldas W away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Palmira W attack 1.33 + Once Caldas W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Once Caldas W attack 0.43 + Internacional Palmira W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Internacional Palmira W scores more

53%

level

27%

Once Caldas W scores more

19%

Internacional Palmira W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Internacional Palmira W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff