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Internacional Palmira W vs La Equidad W — Liga Femenina 2020

Internacional Palmira W
Internacional Palmira W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Equidad W
La Equidad W
2/16/2026Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Round 1Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Internacional Palmira W49%
×Draw27%
La Equidad W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional Palmira W
1.45
La Equidad W
0.95

Internacional Palmira W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 48 away

creates per match

Internacional Palmira W
1.33
La Equidad W
0.85

allows per match

Internacional Palmira W
1.04
La Equidad W
1.56

finishing

Internacional Palmira W+0.00on par
La Equidad W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Palmira W ↓

La Equidad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Internacional Palmira W or draw
75%
Internacional Palmira W or La Equidad W
73%
Draw or La Equidad W
51%

Winning margin

Internacional Palmira W wins by 2+
24%
La Equidad W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Internacional Palmira W 1+ goals
77%
Internacional Palmira W 2+ goals
42%
Internacional Palmira W 3+ goals
18%
La Equidad W 1+ goals
61%
La Equidad W 2+ goals
25%
La Equidad W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Internacional Palmira W (draw refunded)
66%
La Equidad W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Palmira W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

La Equidad W away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.56 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Palmira W attack 1.33 + La Equidad W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

La Equidad W attack 0.85 + Internacional Palmira W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Internacional Palmira W scores more
49%
level
27%
La Equidad W scores more
25%

Internacional Palmira W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Internacional Palmira W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Internacional Palmira W vs La Equidad W

Internacional Palmira W beat La Equidad W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on February 16, 2026.

The match was played at Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.