Internacional Palmira W 0–2 Deportivo Cali W

Internacional Palmira W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Deportivo Cali W

8/23/2025

Liga Femenina · Round 5Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Internacional Palmira W34%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cali W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional Palmira WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.28

Internacional Palmira W

1.17

Deportivo Cali W

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 61 away

1.33

creates per match

1.52

1.04

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Internacional Palmira W

1.33

Deportivo Cali W

1.52

allows per match

Internacional Palmira W

1.04

Deportivo Cali W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional Palmira W+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Palmira W ↓

Deportivo Cali W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Internacional Palmira W or draw

61%

Internacional Palmira W or Deportivo Cali W

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cali W

66%

Winning margin

Internacional Palmira W wins by 2+

14%

Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Internacional Palmira W 1+ goals

69%

Internacional Palmira W 2+ goals

33%

Internacional Palmira W 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals

37%

Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Internacional Palmira W (draw refunded)

46%

Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Palmira W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Deportivo Cali W away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.00 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Palmira W attack 1.33 + Deportivo Cali W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.52 + Internacional Palmira W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Internacional Palmira W scores more

34%

level

27%

Deportivo Cali W scores more

39%

Deportivo Cali W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff