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Internacional Palmira W vs Cúcuta Deportivo W — Liga Femenina 2020

Internacional Palmira W
Internacional Palmira W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cúcuta Deportivo W
Cúcuta Deportivo W
2/25/2024Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 2Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Internacional Palmira W56%
×Draw24%
Cúcuta Deportivo W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional Palmira W
1.67
Cúcuta Deportivo W
0.88

Internacional Palmira W creates 90% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 7 away

creates per match

Internacional Palmira W
1.33
Cúcuta Deportivo W
0.71

allows per match

Internacional Palmira W
1.04
Cúcuta Deportivo W
2.00

finishing

Internacional Palmira W+0.00on par
Cúcuta Deportivo W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Palmira W ↓

Cúcuta Deportivo W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Internacional Palmira W or draw
80%
Internacional Palmira W or Cúcuta Deportivo W
76%
Draw or Cúcuta Deportivo W
44%

Winning margin

Internacional Palmira W wins by 2+
31%
Cúcuta Deportivo W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Internacional Palmira W 1+ goals
81%
Internacional Palmira W 2+ goals
50%
Internacional Palmira W 3+ goals
23%
Cúcuta Deportivo W 1+ goals
59%
Cúcuta Deportivo W 2+ goals
22%
Cúcuta Deportivo W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Internacional Palmira W (draw refunded)
74%
Cúcuta Deportivo W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Palmira W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Cúcuta Deportivo W away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Palmira W attack 1.33 + Cúcuta Deportivo W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cúcuta Deportivo W attack 0.71 + Internacional Palmira W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Internacional Palmira W scores more
56%
level
24%
Cúcuta Deportivo W scores more
20%

Internacional Palmira W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Internacional Palmira W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Internacional Palmira W vs Cúcuta Deportivo W

Internacional Palmira W beat Cúcuta Deportivo W 3-0 in Liga Femenina on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.