Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Internacional Palmira W vs Atlético Nacional W — Liga Femenina 2020

Internacional Palmira W
Internacional Palmira W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Nacional W
Atlético Nacional W
4/9/2025Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 7Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Internacional Palmira W35%
×Draw28%
Atlético Nacional W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional Palmira W
1.15
Atlético Nacional W
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 56 away

creates per match

Internacional Palmira W
1.33
Atlético Nacional W
1.32

allows per match

Internacional Palmira W
1.04
Atlético Nacional W
0.96

finishing

Internacional Palmira W+0.00on par
Atlético Nacional W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Palmira W ↓

Atlético Nacional W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Internacional Palmira W or draw
63%
Internacional Palmira W or Atlético Nacional W
72%
Draw or Atlético Nacional W
65%

Winning margin

Internacional Palmira W wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Nacional W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Internacional Palmira W 1+ goals
68%
Internacional Palmira W 2+ goals
32%
Internacional Palmira W 3+ goals
11%
Atlético Nacional W 1+ goals
69%
Atlético Nacional W 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Nacional W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Internacional Palmira W (draw refunded)
49%
Atlético Nacional W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Palmira W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Atlético Nacional W away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Palmira W attack 1.33 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Atlético Nacional W attack 1.32 + Internacional Palmira W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Internacional Palmira W scores more
35%
level
28%
Atlético Nacional W scores more
37%

Atlético Nacional W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Nacional W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Internacional Palmira W vs Atlético Nacional W

Internacional Palmira W and Atlético Nacional W drew 0-0 in Liga Femenina on April 9, 2025.

The match was played at Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.