Internacional Palmira 1–0 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Internacional Palmira

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jaguares

C. A. Franco Bustillo 74'

10/5/2025

Primera B · Clausura - 13Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Internacional Palmira35%

×Draw29%

Jaguares36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional PalmiraExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.13

Internacional Palmira

1.11

Jaguares

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 23 away

1.23

creates per match

1.48

0.77

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Internacional Palmira

1.23

Jaguares

1.48

allows per match

Internacional Palmira

0.77

Jaguares

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional Palmira+0.00on par

Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Palmira ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Internacional Palmira or draw

64%

Internacional Palmira or Jaguares

71%

Draw or Jaguares

65%

Winning margin

Internacional Palmira wins by 2+

14%

Jaguares wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Internacional Palmira 1+ goals

67%

Internacional Palmira 2+ goals

30%

Internacional Palmira 3+ goals

10%

Jaguares 1+ goals

68%

Jaguares 2+ goals

31%

Jaguares 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Internacional Palmira (draw refunded)

49%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Palmira at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Jaguares away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Palmira attack 1.23 + Jaguares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Jaguares attack 1.48 + Internacional Palmira defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Internacional Palmira scores more

35%

level

29%

Jaguares scores more

36%

Jaguares at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

A. Renteria

13'

C. D. Quinones Caicedo

17'

45+2'

54'

60'

63'

J. Barrios← J. Herrera

63'

J. Mejia← J. Andrade

69'

D. Riascos← C. D. Quinones Caicedo

74'

C. A. Franco Bustillo

78'

Y. Gonzalez

81'

D. Padilla← J. Viveros

81'

B. D. Palacios← J. Maza

81'

D. Ceter← D. Pino

86'

J. S. Guzman Pizarro← K. Caicedo

86'

N. Gongora← J. Arango

88'

J. Gamboa← C. A. Franco Bustillo

90+2'

D. Orozco

90+2'

D. Orozco

Internacional

Jaguares

1

30

4

23

15

▼

Maza

25

Roa

14

▼

Pino

7

▼

Herrera

17

▼

Viveros

20

▼

Andrade

11

Renteria

12

Cadavid

13

▼

5

4

21

80

8

⚽

▼

Bustillo

14

Orozco

70

▼

Arango

35

▼

Caicedo

23

Ibarbo

Manager: H. Cárdenas

69'▲D. Riascos←▼C. D. Quinones Caicedo

86'▲J. S. Guzman Pizarro←▼K. Caicedo

86'▲N. Gongora←▼J. Arango

88'▲J. Gamboa←▼C. A. Franco Bustillo

Internacional Palmira substitutes

22Escobar20Pizarro11Gamboa24Gongora10Rodriguez9Zuniga19Maturana27Delgado7Riascos

Manager: A. Hernández

63'▲J. Barrios←▼J. Herrera

63'▲J. Mejia←▼J. Andrade

81'▲D. Padilla←▼J. Viveros

81'▲B. D. Palacios←▼J. Maza

81'▲D. Ceter←▼D. Pino

Jaguares substitutes

33Tovar5Lovera31Barrios26Padilla19Palacios28Mejia24Ceter