Internacional de Madrid 3–1 SD Logroñés

Internacional de Madrid

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SD Logroñés

S. Brulmans 90+1'

Rubén Ramos 64'

David Barral 5'

Lluís Llàcer 90+3'

5/21/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid52%

×Draw25%

SD Logroñés23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchSD Logroñés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.02

Internacional de Madrid

1.65

SD Logroñés

1.02

Internacional de Madrid creates 62% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 38 away

1.82

creates per match

0.79

1.24

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

SD Logroñés

0.79

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

SD Logroñés

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

SD Logroñés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

77%

Internacional de Madrid or SD Logroñés

75%

Draw or SD Logroñés

48%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

28%

SD Logroñés wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

81%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

49%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

23%

SD Logroñés 1+ goals

64%

SD Logroñés 2+ goals

27%

SD Logroñés 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

69%

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + SD Logroñés defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

SD Logroñés attack 0.79 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

52%

level

25%

SD Logroñés scores more

23%

Internacional de Madrid at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

David Barral

58'

Álvaro Montero← Álvaro Martín

58'

L. Marín← David Barral

62'

Carlos Calderón← Haritz Albisua

62'

Emilio Lozano← Dani Sandoval

64'

Rubén Ramos

67'

S. Brulmans← Adrián Mance

70'

Ander El Haddadi← Jon Ander

70'

Mikel Zarrabeitia← Álvaro Arnedo

74'

Kenneth Soler← Rubén Ramos

74'

Marcos Bravo← Ramón Blázquez

74'

89'

90+1'

90+3'

Internacional

SD

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Barral

⚽

▼

Ramos

▼

Blázquez

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

58'▲Álvaro Montero←▼Álvaro Martín

58'▲L. Marín←▼David Barral

67'▲S. Brulmans←▼Adrián Mance

74'▲Kenneth Soler←▼Rubén Ramos

74'▲Marcos Bravo←▼Ramón Blázquez

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

MonteroMarínBrulmansSolerBravoSiuKolderiuPituYelcoAristeguieta

Manager: Raúl Llona

62'▲Carlos Calderón←▼Haritz Albisua

62'▲Emilio Lozano←▼Dani Sandoval

70'▲Ander El Haddadi←▼Jon Ander

70'▲Mikel Zarrabeitia←▼Álvaro Arnedo

74'▲Pirri←▼Asier Córdoba

SD Logroñés substitutes

CalderónLozanoHaddadiZarrabeitiaPirriParedesSoberónSuárezGraciaCuberoOzerinjauregi

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs SD Logroñés

Internacional de Madrid beat SD Logroñés 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 21, 2022.

Goals: David Barral (5'), Rubén Ramos (64'), S. Brulmans (90+1'), Lluís Llàcer (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs SD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs SD Logroñés