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Internacional de Madrid vs Pontevedra — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Internacional de Madrid
Internacional de Madrid
CANC
22:00
Pontevedra
Pontevedra
5/16/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid48%
×Draw25%
Pontevedra27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Madrid
1.58
Pontevedra
1.12

Internacional de Madrid creates 41% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 65 away

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid
1.82
Pontevedra
1.00

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid
1.24
Pontevedra
1.35

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par
Pontevedra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Pontevedra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw
73%
Internacional de Madrid or Pontevedra
75%
Draw or Pontevedra
52%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+
25%
Pontevedra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals
79%
Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals
47%
Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals
21%
Pontevedra 1+ goals
67%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
31%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)
64%
Pontevedra (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Pontevedra away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Pontevedra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.58

Pontevedra attack 1.00 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more
48%
level
25%
Pontevedra scores more
27%

Internacional de Madrid at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Internacional de Madrid host Pontevedra

May 16, 2020: Internacional de Madrid take on Pontevedra in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Internacional de Madrid host Pontevedra at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.