Internacional de Madrid 0–0 Poblense

Internacional de Madrid

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Poblense

3/21/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 18Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Internacional de Madrid40%

×Draw30%

Poblense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchPoblense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.92

Internacional de Madrid

1.13

Poblense

0.92

Internacional de Madrid creates 23% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.17

creates per match

1.00

0.83

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.17

Poblense

1.00

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

0.83

Poblense

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Poblense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Poblense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

71%

Internacional de Madrid or Poblense

70%

Draw or Poblense

60%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

17%

Poblense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

68%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

31%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

11%

Poblense 1+ goals

60%

Poblense 2+ goals

23%

Poblense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

58%

Poblense (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Poblense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.17 + Poblense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Poblense attack 1.00 + Internacional de Madrid defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

40%

level

30%

Poblense scores more

29%

Internacional de Madrid at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Víctor Villacañas← David Barral

60'

L. Gilardoni← Javi Moreno

71'

Raúl Beneit← Rubén Jurado

76'

Chicha Aguilera← Adrián Mance

80'

Damià Ramos← T. Giaquinto

86'

Junior← Sergio Arribas

Internacional

Poblense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

46'▲Víctor Villacañas←▼David Barral

76'▲Chicha Aguilera←▼Adrián Mance

86'▲Junior←▼Sergio Arribas

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

VillacañasAguileraJuniorFrancoPoleyJiménezMarcosValero

Manager: Óscar Troya

60'▲L. Gilardoni←▼Javi Moreno

71'▲Raúl Beneit←▼Rubén Jurado

80'▲Damià Ramos←▼T. Giaquinto

Poblense substitutes

GilardoniBeneitRamosBachekFloritFemeniasPoloPocoví

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Poblense

Internacional de Madrid and Poblense drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs Poblense — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Poblense