Internacional de Madrid vs Mérida AD

Internacional de Madrid

CANC

19:30

Mérida AD

9/3/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid48%

×Draw25%

Mérida AD27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchMérida AD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.08

Internacional de Madrid

1.54

Mérida AD

1.08

Internacional de Madrid creates 43% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 37 away

1.82

creates per match

0.92

1.24

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Mérida AD

0.92

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Mérida AD

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Mérida AD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

73%

Internacional de Madrid or Mérida AD

75%

Draw or Mérida AD

52%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

24%

Mérida AD wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

79%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

45%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

20%

Mérida AD 1+ goals

66%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

29%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

64%

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Mérida AD defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Mérida AD attack 0.92 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

48%

level

25%

Mérida AD scores more

27%

Internacional de Madrid at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff