Internacional de Madrid 1–0 Badajoz: Result & Stats

Internacional de Madrid

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Badajoz

Adrián Mance 77'

3/20/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid50%

×Draw26%

Badajoz25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchBadajoz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.00

Internacional de Madrid

1.54

Badajoz

1.00

Internacional de Madrid creates 54% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 37 away

1.82

creates per match

0.76

1.24

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Badajoz

0.76

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Badajoz

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Badajoz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

75%

Internacional de Madrid or Badajoz

74%

Draw or Badajoz

50%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

26%

Badajoz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

79%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

45%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

20%

Badajoz 1+ goals

63%

Badajoz 2+ goals

26%

Badajoz 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

67%

Badajoz (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Badajoz away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Badajoz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Badajoz attack 0.76 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

50%

level

26%

Badajoz scores more

25%

Internacional de Madrid at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

A. Herrero

41'

J. Clemente

57'

G. Perez

61'

Adilson← Zelu

61'

David Concha← Jesús Clemente

63'

L. Marin

63'

Alberto Gil← Alvar Herrero

63'

Marcos Bravo← Pitu

67'

A. Zambrano

76'

Álvaro Montero← Álvaro Martín

76'

S. Brulmans← Álex Zambrano

77'

Adrián Mance

83'

T. Awudu← Adri Cuevas

88'

Dani Siu← Rubén Ramos

89'

F. Reguera

90+2'

A. Montoro

90+2'

R. Soria Blazquez

Internacional

Badajoz

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

63'▲Alberto Gil←▼Alvar Herrero

63'▲Marcos Bravo←▼Pitu

76'▲Álvaro Montero←▼Álvaro Martín

76'▲S. Brulmans←▼Álex Zambrano

88'▲Dani Siu←▼Rubén Ramos

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

GilBravoMonteroBrulmansSiuWashingtonBarralKolderiuYelco

Manager: Isaac Jové

61'▲Adilson←▼Zelu

61'▲David Concha←▼Jesús Clemente

83'▲T. Awudu←▼Adri Cuevas

Badajoz substitutes

AdilsonConchaAwuduPascualLópezTorresLimonesOteguiNsukula

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Internacional de Madrid 1–0 Badajoz

Internacional de Madrid beat Badajoz 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 20, 2022.

Goals: Adrián Mance (77').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs Badajoz — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Internacional de Madrid 1–0 Badajoz