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Internacional de Bogota vs Patriotas — Primera A 2018

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Patriotas
Patriotas
9/14/2019Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Internacional de Bogota52%
×Draw27%
Patriotas21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.42
Patriotas
0.80

Internacional de Bogota creates 77% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 109 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.22
Patriotas
0.70

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
0.90
Patriotas
1.63

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par
Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Patriotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
79%
Internacional de Bogota or Patriotas
73%
Draw or Patriotas
48%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
26%
Patriotas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
76%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
41%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
17%
Patriotas 1+ goals
55%
Patriotas 2+ goals
19%
Patriotas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
71%
Patriotas (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.90 · 169 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.63 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.22 + Patriotas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Patriotas attack 0.70 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
52%
level
27%
Patriotas scores more
21%

Internacional de Bogota at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Internacional de Bogota vs Patriotas

Internacional de Bogota beat Patriotas 1-0 in Primera A on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogota.