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Internacional de Bogota vs Llaneros — Primera A 2018

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
Preview
21:05
Llaneros
Llaneros
9/12/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 10Estadio Metropolitano de Techo
Big match
46%
Internacional de Bogota
model favours
46%28%25%

Internacional de Bogota win just 27% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Internacional de Bogota46%
×Draw28%
Llaneros25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.32
Llaneros
0.90

Internacional de Bogota creates 47% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 30 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.22
Llaneros
0.90

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
0.90
Llaneros
1.43

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par
Llaneros+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Llaneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
75%
Internacional de Bogota or Llaneros
72%
Draw or Llaneros
54%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
22%
Llaneros wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
73%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
38%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
15%
Llaneros 1+ goals
59%
Llaneros 2+ goals
23%
Llaneros 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
65%
Llaneros (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.90 · 169 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.22 + Llaneros defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Llaneros attack 0.90 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
46%
level
28%
Llaneros scores more
25%

Internacional de Bogota at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Internacional de Bogota sit 5, Llaneros 19 in the table
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Internacional de Bogota
Balanced
Llaneros
Balanced
46%Possession48%
76%Pass accuracy79%
12.4ShotsBiggest gap10.8
0.97xG1.08
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Internacional de BogotaLlaneros

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Internacional de Bogota
2
Draws
1
Llaneros
Avg goals: 1.3BTTS: 33%
1–11–02–10–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bogota
LLLWL
Llaneros
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Internacional de Bogota face Llaneros (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Internacional de Bogota hosting Llaneros. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Internacional de Bogota host Llaneros at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.