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Internacional de Bogota vs Llaneros — Primera A 2025

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Llaneros
Llaneros
J. Micolta Piedahita 68'
K. Parra Atehortua 33'
A. Lopez 36'
8/16/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 7Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Internacional de Bogota45%
×Draw28%
Llaneros27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.35
Llaneros
0.98

Internacional de Bogota creates 38% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 30 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.28
Llaneros
0.90

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.06
Llaneros
1.43

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par
Llaneros+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Llaneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
73%
Internacional de Bogota or Llaneros
72%
Draw or Llaneros
55%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
21%
Llaneros wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
74%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
39%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
15%
Llaneros 1+ goals
62%
Llaneros 2+ goals
26%
Llaneros 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
62%
Llaneros (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.28 + Llaneros defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Llaneros attack 0.90 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
45%
level
28%
Llaneros scores more
27%

Internacional de Bogota at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
A. LopezLlanerosLlaneros · M
8.3

Match Events

30'
Kevin Parra
33'
K. Parra Atehortua↳ J. Micolta Piedahita
36'
A. Lopez
42'
Brian Benitez
52'
Marlon García
60'
H. H. Mena Posada← G. Montes
60'
Y. Goez← J. Angulo
60'
L. Miranda← B. Benitez
62'
Jean Colorado
62'
M. Monaco← D. Copete
65'
Yeiler Góez
68'
J. Micolta Piedahita
69'
B. Uruena← M. Y. Garcia Mejia
72'
Luis Miranda
73'
E. Bodencer← M. Sierra
82'
F. Chaverra← J. Micolta Piedahita
82'
J. Bolivar← K. Parra Atehortua
90+8'
Jovanny Bolívar
90'
Manuel Mónaco
90+7'
Howell Mena
90+5'
B. Montano← Y. Abonia

Possession

47%Internacional

Shots

11Internacional

Pass accuracy

50%Internacional

Statistics

InternacionalLlaneros
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots8
3Corners2
17Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots8
4On Target1
3Off Target4
4Blocked3
6Inside Box2
5Outside Box6
Passing
47%Possession53%
336Total Passes387
278Accurate Passes319
83%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls16
4Yellow Cards5
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Internacional de Bogota vs Llaneros

Internacional de Bogota beat Llaneros 2-1 in Primera A on August 16, 2025.

Goals: K. Parra Atehortua (33'), A. Lopez (36'), J. Micolta Piedahita (68').

Llaneros controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogota.