Internacional de Bogota 0–1 Lanus: Result & Stats

Internacional de Bogota

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lanus

L. Vera 27'

5/7/2021

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Internacional de Bogota33%

×Draw30%

Lanus37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchLanus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.11

Internacional de Bogota

1.02

Lanus

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

1.00

creates per match

1.22

1.00

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.00

Lanus

1.22

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.00

Lanus

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Lanus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Lanus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

63%

Internacional de Bogota or Lanus

70%

Draw or Lanus

67%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

12%

Lanus wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

64%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

27%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

8%

Lanus 1+ goals

67%

Lanus 2+ goals

30%

Lanus 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

47%

Lanus (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Lanus away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.00 + Lanus defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Lanus attack 1.22 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

33%

level

30%

Lanus scores more

37%

Lanus at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Esquivel

Lanus · F

7.9

Match Events

12'

20'

27'

30'

57'

63'

L. Besozzi← Lautaro Acosta

63'

F. Quignón← F. Pérez

64'

J. Colina← J. Mahecha

64'

C. Rodríguez← D. Herazo

65'

Walmer Pacheco

74'

J. Gómez← F. Orozco

74'

I. Cechi← L. Vera

79'

A. Correa← A. Torralvo

81'

81'

84'

84'

84'

J. Fuentes← C. Rodríguez

90+1'

B. Aguirre← J. Aude

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalLanus

Overview

45%Possession55%

6Total Shots13

2Corners5

24Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots13

0On Target4

4Off Target6

2Blocked3

3Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

376Total Passes446

273Accurate Passes357

73%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

24Fouls12

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1