Internacional de Bogota 0–1 Carabobo FC

Internacional de Bogota

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Carabobo FC

F. Londono 5'

1/14/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Internacional de Bogota21%

×Draw39%

Carabobo FC41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchCarabobo FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.50

0.83

Internacional de Bogota

0.50

Carabobo FC

0.83

Carabobo FC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.33

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

0.33

Carabobo FC

1.00

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

0.67

Carabobo FC

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Carabobo FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under85
Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No78
Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Carabobo FC →

0–026%

0–122%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–03%

2–13%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–01%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

74%26%1.5

38%62%2.5

15%85%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

59%

Internacional de Bogota or Carabobo FC

61%

Draw or Carabobo FC

79%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

Carabobo FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

39%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

Carabobo FC 1+ goals

56%

Carabobo FC 2+ goals

20%

Carabobo FC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

34%

Carabobo FC (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

11%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Carabobo FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.33 + Carabobo FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Carabobo FC attack 1.00 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

21%

level

39%

Carabobo FC scores more

41%

Carabobo FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Carabobo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

F. Londono

Internacional

Carabobo

Manager: Diego Merino Rivera

Manager: Daniel Alejandro Farías Acosta