Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Bucaramanga

Internacional de Bogota

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bucaramanga

10/18/2020

Primera A · Round 15Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 168+ matches

Internacional de Bogota44%

×Draw29%

Bucaramanga27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.88

Internacional de Bogota

1.21

Bucaramanga

0.88

Internacional de Bogota creates 38% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 168 away

1.22

creates per match

0.86

0.90

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.22

Bucaramanga

0.86

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

0.90

Bucaramanga

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

73%

Internacional de Bogota or Bucaramanga

71%

Draw or Bucaramanga

56%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

19%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

70%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

34%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

12%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

59%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

22%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

62%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.90 · 169 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.20 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.22 + Bucaramanga defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bucaramanga attack 0.86 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

44%

level

29%

Bucaramanga scores more

27%

Internacional de Bogota at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff