Bucaramanga 2–1 Internacional de Bogota

Bucaramanga

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Internacional de Bogota

L. Pons 42', 7'

K. Parra Atehortua 36'

11/9/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 19Estadio Américo Montanini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bucaramanga48%

×Draw28%

Internacional de Bogota24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.87

Bucaramanga

1.35

Internacional de Bogota

0.87

Bucaramanga creates 55% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.15

creates per match

0.81

0.93

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.15

Internacional de Bogota

0.81

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.93

Internacional de Bogota

1.56

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Bucaramanga-0.29scores less

Internacional de Bogota-0.06on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

76%

Bucaramanga or Internacional de Bogota

72%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

52%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

23%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

74%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

39%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

15%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

58%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

22%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

66%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 7 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.15 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.81 + Bucaramanga defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

48%

level

28%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

24%

Bucaramanga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

L. Pons

Bucaramanga · F

9.9

Match Events

7'

C. Paternina← F. Gonzalez

7'

L. Pons↳ F. A. Gil Mosquera

36'

K. Parra Atehortua↳ J. Valencia

42'

L. Pons↳ F. Sambueza

46'

A. Zarate← G. Charrupi

46'

L. Flores← Jhon Vasquez

54'

Fredy Hinestroza

59'

Mateo Santamaria

60'

J. Garcia← F. Hinestroza

60'

K. Londono← F. A. Gil Mosquera

67'

J. Micolta Piedahita← S. Mayo

67'

M. Monaco←

73'

Carlos Henao

79'

Fabián Sambueza

82'

Luciano Pons

83'

J. Masllorens← D. Quinones

83'

J. Asprilla← J. Valencia

84'

Mateo Rodas

87'

G. Medina← N. Moreno

89'

Kevin Londoño

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaInternacional

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots13

1.60Expected Goals (xG)1.08

5Corners2

18Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots13

6On Target5

4Off Target7

3Blocked1

7Inside Box10

6Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

447Total Passes324

377Accurate Passes264

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls12

5Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1