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Internacional de Bogota vs Bogota FC — Copa Colombia 2024

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bogota FC
Bogota FC
F. Chaverra 9'
C. Huerfano 74', 71'
6/8/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st Round - 3Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Internacional de Bogota41%
×Draw26%
Bogota FC33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.42
Bogota FC
1.25

Internacional de Bogota creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
0.50
Bogota FC
1.00

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.50
Bogota FC
2.33

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par
Bogota FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Bogota FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
67%
Internacional de Bogota or Bogota FC
74%
Draw or Bogota FC
59%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
19%
Bogota FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
76%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
41%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
17%
Bogota FC 1+ goals
71%
Bogota FC 2+ goals
36%
Bogota FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
55%
Bogota FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Bogota FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.50 + Bogota FC defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bogota FC attack 1.00 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
41%
level
26%
Bogota FC scores more
33%

Internacional de Bogota at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
F. Chaverra
71'
C. Huerfano
74'
C. Huerfano
Internacional
Bogota
Diego Merino Rivera
Manager: Diego Merino Rivera
L. Melo
Manager: L. Melo

Copa Colombia: Internacional de Bogota 1–2 Bogota FC

Bogota FC beat Internacional de Bogota 2-1 in Copa Colombia on June 8, 2025.

Goals: F. Chaverra (9'), C. Huerfano (71', 74').

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.