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Internacional 2 vs São Paulo RS — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Internacional 2
Internacional 2
FT
5 – 0
São Paulo RS
São Paulo RS
9/4/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Morada dos Quero-Queros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Internacional 288%
×Draw8%
São Paulo RS4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional 2
4.06
São Paulo RS
0.88

Internacional 2 creates 361% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Internacional 2
2.63
São Paulo RS
0.50

allows per match

Internacional 2
1.25
São Paulo RS
5.50

finishing

Internacional 2+0.00on par
São Paulo RS+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional 2 ↓

São Paulo RS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Internacional 2 or draw
96%
Internacional 2 or São Paulo RS
92%
Draw or São Paulo RS
12%

Winning margin

Internacional 2 wins by 2+
74%
São Paulo RS wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Internacional 2 1+ goals
98%
Internacional 2 2+ goals
90%
Internacional 2 3+ goals
74%
São Paulo RS 1+ goals
59%
São Paulo RS 2+ goals
22%
São Paulo RS 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Internacional 2 (draw refunded)
95%
São Paulo RS (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional 2 at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

São Paulo RS away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional 2 attack 2.63 + São Paulo RS defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 4.06

São Paulo RS attack 0.50 + Internacional 2 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Internacional 2 scores more
88%
level
8%
São Paulo RS scores more
4%

Internacional 2 at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Internacional 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Internacional 2 vs São Paulo RS

Internacional 2 beat São Paulo RS 5-0 in Copa Gaúcha on September 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Morada dos Quero-Queros in Alvorada, Rio Grande do Sul.