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Internacional 2 vs Juventude II — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Internacional 2
Internacional 2
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Juventude II
Juventude II
10/20/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Morada dos Quero-Queros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Internacional 267%
×Draw18%
Juventude II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional 2
2.36
Juventude II
0.99

Internacional 2 creates 138% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Internacional 2
2.63
Juventude II
0.73

allows per match

Internacional 2
1.25
Juventude II
2.09

finishing

Internacional 2+0.00on par
Juventude II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional 2 ↓

Juventude II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Internacional 2 or draw
86%
Internacional 2 or Juventude II
82%
Draw or Juventude II
33%

Winning margin

Internacional 2 wins by 2+
45%
Juventude II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Internacional 2 1+ goals
90%
Internacional 2 2+ goals
68%
Internacional 2 3+ goals
41%
Juventude II 1+ goals
63%
Juventude II 2+ goals
26%
Juventude II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Internacional 2 (draw refunded)
82%
Juventude II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional 2 at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Juventude II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional 2 attack 2.63 + Juventude II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.36

Juventude II attack 0.73 + Internacional 2 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Internacional 2 scores more
67%
level
18%
Juventude II scores more
14%

Internacional 2 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Internacional 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Internacional 2 vs Juventude II

Internacional 2 beat Juventude II 2-1 in Copa Gaúcha on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Morada dos Quero-Queros in Alvorada, Rio Grande do Sul.