Internacional 2 2–1 Gremio 2: Result & Stats

Internacional 2

FT

2 – 1

Gremio 2

9/18/2024

Copa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Morada dos Quero-Queros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Internacional 256%

×Draw24%

Gremio 219%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional 2Expected goals in this matchGremio 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.88

Internacional 2

1.69

Gremio 2

0.88

Internacional 2 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

2.63

creates per match

0.50

1.25

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Internacional 2

2.63

Gremio 2

0.50

allows per match

Internacional 2

1.25

Gremio 2

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional 2+0.00on par

Gremio 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional 2 ↓

Gremio 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Internacional 2 or draw

81%

Internacional 2 or Gremio 2

76%

Draw or Gremio 2

44%

Winning margin

Internacional 2 wins by 2+

31%

Gremio 2 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Internacional 2 1+ goals

82%

Internacional 2 2+ goals

50%

Internacional 2 3+ goals

24%

Gremio 2 1+ goals

59%

Gremio 2 2+ goals

22%

Gremio 2 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Internacional 2 (draw refunded)

74%

Gremio 2 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional 2 at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Gremio 2 away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional 2 attack 2.63 + Gremio 2 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

Gremio 2 attack 0.50 + Internacional 2 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Internacional 2 scores more

56%

level

24%

Gremio 2 scores more

19%

Internacional 2 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Internacional 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff