Intergym 0–2 Juventud Torremolinos: Result & Stats

Intergym

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Juventud Torremolinos

Juan Oñate 89'

Javi Amaya 38'

11/27/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 13Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Intergym11%

×Draw19%

Juventud Torremolinos71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IntergymExpected goals in this matchJuventud Torremolinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

2.14

Intergym

0.69

Juventud Torremolinos

2.14

Juventud Torremolinos creates 210% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

0.56

creates per match

1.53

2.75

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Intergym

0.56

Juventud Torremolinos

1.53

allows per match

Intergym

2.75

Juventud Torremolinos

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Intergym+0.00on par

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intergym ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →

0–06%

0–113%

0–214%

0–310%

0–45%

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Intergym or draw

29%

Intergym or Juventud Torremolinos

81%

Draw or Juventud Torremolinos

89%

Winning margin

Intergym wins by 2+

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Intergym 1+ goals

50%

Intergym 2+ goals

15%

Intergym 3+ goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals

88%

Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals

63%

Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Intergym (draw refunded)

13%

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Intergym at home — creates 0.56, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Intergym attack 0.56 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.69

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.53 + Intergym defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Intergym scores more

11%

level

19%

Juventud Torremolinos scores more

71%

Juventud Torremolinos at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

Javi Amaya

46'

Nacho Lapeira← José

58'

Cristian García← Abdusalam

61'

Caturla← Javi Amaya

61'

Juan Oñate← A. Chamorro

61'

Vergara← Gato

70'

Karim Laarbi← Isbai

73'

M. Mimun← Souliman Hannou

73'

Álex López← Waalid

80'

Manu← Fran Castillo

89'

Juan Oñate

Intergym

Juventud

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Paco Valiente

58'▲Cristian García←▼Abdusalam

70'▲Karim Laarbi←▼Isbai

73'▲M. Mimun←▼Souliman Hannou

73'▲Álex López←▼Waalid

Intergym substitutes

GarcíaLaarbiMimunLópez

Manager: Ibón Pérez

46'▲Nacho Lapeira←▼José

61'▲Caturla←▼Javi Amaya

61'▲Juan Oñate←▼A. Chamorro

61'▲Vergara←▼Gato

80'▲Manu←▼Fran Castillo

Juventud Torremolinos substitutes

LapeiraCaturlaOñateVergaraManu