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Intergym vs Huétor Vega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Intergym
Intergym
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
10/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Intergym19%
×Draw22%
Huétor Vega59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Intergym
0.97
Huétor Vega
1.90

Huétor Vega creates 96% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 109 away

creates per match

Intergym
0.56
Huétor Vega
1.04

allows per match

Intergym
2.75
Huétor Vega
1.38

finishing

Intergym+0.00on par
Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intergym ↓

Huétor Vega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Intergym or draw
41%
Intergym or Huétor Vega
78%
Draw or Huétor Vega
81%

Winning margin

Intergym wins by 2+
6%
Huétor Vega wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Intergym 1+ goals
62%
Intergym 2+ goals
25%
Intergym 3+ goals
7%
Huétor Vega 1+ goals
85%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
56%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Intergym (draw refunded)
24%
Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Intergym at home — creates 0.56, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

Huétor Vega away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Intergym attack 0.56 + Huétor Vega defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.97

Huétor Vega attack 1.04 + Intergym defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Intergym scores more
19%
level
22%
Huétor Vega scores more
59%

Huétor Vega at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Intergym vs Huétor Vega

Intergym and Huétor Vega drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.