Intergym 1–2 Atlético Porcuna: Result & Stats

Intergym

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Atlético Porcuna

M. Mimun 4'

I. Balde 83'

Raúl Luisi 20'

3/20/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 29Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Intergym23%

×Draw23%

Atlético Porcuna55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IntergymExpected goals in this matchAtlético Porcuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.87

Intergym

1.13

Atlético Porcuna

1.87

Atlético Porcuna creates 65% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 94 away

0.56

creates per match

0.99

2.75

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Intergym

0.56

Atlético Porcuna

0.99

allows per match

Intergym

2.75

Atlético Porcuna

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Intergym+0.00on par

Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intergym ↓

Atlético Porcuna →

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Intergym or draw

45%

Intergym or Atlético Porcuna

77%

Draw or Atlético Porcuna

77%

Winning margin

Intergym wins by 2+

Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Intergym 1+ goals

68%

Intergym 2+ goals

31%

Intergym 3+ goals

11%

Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals

85%

Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals

56%

Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Intergym (draw refunded)

30%

Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Intergym at home — creates 0.56, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

Atlético Porcuna away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Intergym attack 0.56 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atlético Porcuna attack 0.99 + Intergym defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Intergym scores more

23%

level

23%

Atlético Porcuna scores more

55%

Atlético Porcuna at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atlético Porcuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

M. Mimun

20'

Raúl Luisi

46'

Adri Ferrer← Lucas

46'

Francisco Solera← David Aragón

58'

Tarik← Abdusalam

58'

Yannick← Yeray Moreno

68'

Alain← David Ruano

78'

Salah← Imad

83'

I. Balde

86'

Mohsin← Waalid

Intergym

Atlético

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Paco Valiente

58'▲Tarik←▼Abdusalam

78'▲Salah←▼Imad

86'▲Mohsin←▼Waalid

Intergym substitutes

TarikSalahMohsin

Manager: David Campaña

46'▲Adri Ferrer←▼Lucas

46'▲Francisco Solera←▼David Aragón

58'▲Yannick←▼Yeray Moreno

68'▲Alain←▼David Ruano

Atlético Porcuna substitutes

FerrerSoleraYannickAlain

Match Recap: Intergym vs Atlético Porcuna

Atlético Porcuna beat Intergym 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 20, 2022.

Goals: M. Mimun (4'), Raúl Luisi (20'), I. Balde (83').

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.

Intergym vs Atlético Porcuna — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Intergym vs Atlético Porcuna