Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Intergym vs Almería II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Intergym
Intergym
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Almería II
Almería II
1/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 21Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Intergym15%
×Draw20%
Almería II65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Intergym
0.93
Almería II
2.13

Almería II creates 129% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 75 away

creates per match

Intergym
0.56
Almería II
1.51

allows per match

Intergym
2.75
Almería II
1.29

finishing

Intergym+0.00on par
Almería II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intergym ↓

Almería II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Intergym or draw
35%
Intergym or Almería II
80%
Draw or Almería II
85%

Winning margin

Intergym wins by 2+
5%
Almería II wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Intergym 1+ goals
61%
Intergym 2+ goals
24%
Intergym 3+ goals
7%
Almería II 1+ goals
88%
Almería II 2+ goals
63%
Almería II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Intergym (draw refunded)
19%
Almería II (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Intergym at home — creates 0.56, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

Almería II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Intergym attack 0.56 + Almería II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.93

Almería II attack 1.51 + Intergym defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Intergym scores more
15%
level
20%
Almería II scores more
65%

Almería II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Intergym 0–4 Almería II

Almería II beat Intergym 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.