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Intergym vs Alhaurino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Intergym
Intergym
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alhaurino
Alhaurino
12/8/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 15Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Intergym20%
×Draw22%
Alhaurino58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Intergym
1.04
Alhaurino
1.93

Alhaurino creates 86% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 47 away

creates per match

Intergym
0.56
Alhaurino
1.11

allows per match

Intergym
2.75
Alhaurino
1.53

finishing

Intergym+0.00on par
Alhaurino+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intergym ↓

Alhaurino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Intergym or draw
42%
Intergym or Alhaurino
78%
Draw or Alhaurino
80%

Winning margin

Intergym wins by 2+
7%
Alhaurino wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Intergym 1+ goals
65%
Intergym 2+ goals
28%
Intergym 3+ goals
9%
Alhaurino 1+ goals
85%
Alhaurino 2+ goals
57%
Alhaurino 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Intergym (draw refunded)
26%
Alhaurino (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Intergym at home — creates 0.56, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

Alhaurino away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Intergym attack 0.56 + Alhaurino defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.04

Alhaurino attack 1.11 + Intergym defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Intergym scores more
20%
level
22%
Alhaurino scores more
58%

Alhaurino at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Alhaurino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Intergym 1–1 Alhaurino

Intergym and Alhaurino drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.