Interclube 1–3 Wiliete: Result & Stats | Girabola

Interclube

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Wiliete

11/4/2023

Girabola · Round 2Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Interclube46%

×Draw29%

Wiliete24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InterclubeExpected goals in this matchWiliete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.82

Interclube

1.25

Wiliete

0.82

Interclube creates 52% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 99 away

1.47

creates per match

0.95

0.70

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Interclube

1.47

Wiliete

0.95

allows per match

Interclube

0.70

Wiliete

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Interclube+0.00on par

Wiliete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Interclube ↓

Wiliete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Interclube or draw

76%

Interclube or Wiliete

71%

Draw or Wiliete

54%

Winning margin

Interclube wins by 2+

21%

Wiliete wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Interclube 1+ goals

71%

Interclube 2+ goals

36%

Interclube 3+ goals

13%

Wiliete 1+ goals

56%

Wiliete 2+ goals

20%

Wiliete 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Interclube (draw refunded)

66%

Wiliete (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Interclube at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.70 · 115 matches

Wiliete away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Interclube attack 1.47 + Wiliete defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Wiliete attack 0.95 + Interclube defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Interclube scores more

46%

level

29%

Wiliete scores more

24%

Interclube at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Interclube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff