Interclube 0–1 Kabuscorp: Result & Stats | Girabola

Interclube

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kabuscorp

S. Neves 56'

Sandro 22'

9/16/2025

Girabola · Round 1Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Interclube40%

×Draw32%

Kabuscorp28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InterclubeExpected goals in this matchKabuscorp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.80

Interclube

1.02

Kabuscorp

0.80

Interclube creates 27% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

1.17

creates per match

0.91

0.70

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Interclube

1.17

Kabuscorp

0.91

allows per match

Interclube

0.70

Kabuscorp

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Interclube+0.00on par

Kabuscorp+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Interclube ↓

Kabuscorp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Interclube or draw

72%

Interclube or Kabuscorp

68%

Draw or Kabuscorp

60%

Winning margin

Interclube wins by 2+

16%

Kabuscorp wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Interclube 1+ goals

64%

Interclube 2+ goals

27%

Interclube 3+ goals

8%

Kabuscorp 1+ goals

55%

Kabuscorp 2+ goals

19%

Kabuscorp 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Interclube (draw refunded)

59%

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Interclube at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

Kabuscorp away — creates 0.91, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Interclube attack 1.17 + Kabuscorp defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.02

Kabuscorp attack 0.91 + Interclube defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Interclube scores more

40%

level

32%

Kabuscorp scores more

28%

Interclube at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Interclube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Sandro

56'

S. Neves

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff