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Interclube vs Isaac de Benguela — Girabola 2019

Interclube
Interclube
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Isaac de Benguela
Isaac de Benguela
10/15/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 4Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Interclube59%
×Draw24%
Isaac de Benguela17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Interclube
1.64
Isaac de Benguela
0.75

Interclube creates 119% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 29 away

creates per match

Interclube
1.49
Isaac de Benguela
0.79

allows per match

Interclube
0.71
Isaac de Benguela
1.79

finishing

Interclube+0.00on par
Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Interclube ↓

Isaac de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Interclube or draw
83%
Interclube or Isaac de Benguela
76%
Draw or Isaac de Benguela
41%

Winning margin

Interclube wins by 2+
32%
Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Interclube 1+ goals
81%
Interclube 2+ goals
49%
Interclube 3+ goals
23%
Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals
53%
Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals
17%
Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Interclube (draw refunded)
78%
Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Interclube at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

Isaac de Benguela away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Interclube attack 1.49 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.64

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.79 + Interclube defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Interclube scores more
59%
level
24%
Isaac de Benguela scores more
17%

Interclube at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Interclube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Interclube vs Isaac de Benguela

Interclube beat Isaac de Benguela 3-2 in Girabola on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Dinis in Luanda.