Intercity 4–2 Sevilla Atletico: Result & Stats

Intercity

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Sevilla Atletico

11/27/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Intercity46%

×Draw28%

Sevilla Atletico26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IntercityExpected goals in this matchSevilla Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.93

Intercity

1.35

Sevilla Atletico

0.93

Intercity creates 45% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

1.18

creates per match

0.65

1.21

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Intercity

1.18

Sevilla Atletico

0.65

allows per match

Intercity

1.21

Sevilla Atletico

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Intercity+0.00on par

Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intercity ↓

Sevilla Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Intercity or draw

74%

Intercity or Sevilla Atletico

72%

Draw or Sevilla Atletico

54%

Winning margin

Intercity wins by 2+

22%

Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Intercity 1+ goals

74%

Intercity 2+ goals

39%

Intercity 3+ goals

15%

Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals

61%

Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals

24%

Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Intercity (draw refunded)

64%

Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Intercity at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Sevilla Atletico away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Intercity attack 1.18 + Sevilla Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sevilla Atletico attack 0.65 + Intercity defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Intercity scores more

46%

level

28%

Sevilla Atletico scores more

26%

Intercity at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff