Intercity 1–0 SD Logroñés: Result & Stats

Intercity

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SD Logroñés

5/20/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Intercity41%

×Draw28%

SD Logroñés31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IntercityExpected goals in this matchSD Logroñés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.05

Intercity

1.27

SD Logroñés

1.05

Intercity creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 31 away

1.18

creates per match

0.90

1.21

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Intercity

1.18

SD Logroñés

0.90

allows per match

Intercity

1.21

SD Logroñés

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Intercity+0.00on par

SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intercity ↓

SD Logroñés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Intercity or draw

69%

Intercity or SD Logroñés

72%

Draw or SD Logroñés

59%

Winning margin

Intercity wins by 2+

19%

SD Logroñés wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Intercity 1+ goals

72%

Intercity 2+ goals

36%

Intercity 3+ goals

14%

SD Logroñés 1+ goals

65%

SD Logroñés 2+ goals

28%

SD Logroñés 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Intercity (draw refunded)

57%

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Intercity at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Intercity attack 1.18 + SD Logroñés defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

SD Logroñés attack 0.90 + Intercity defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Intercity scores more

41%

level

28%

SD Logroñés scores more

31%

Intercity at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff