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Intercity vs Saguntino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Intercity
Intercity
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Saguntino
Saguntino
8/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 1Poliesportiu Sant Joan d'Alacant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Intercity45%
×Draw27%
Saguntino29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Intercity
1.41
Saguntino
1.07

Intercity creates 32% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 80 away

creates per match

Intercity
1.72
Saguntino
1.18

allows per match

Intercity
0.96
Saguntino
1.09

finishing

Intercity+0.00on par
Saguntino+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intercity ↓

Saguntino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Intercity or draw
71%
Intercity or Saguntino
73%
Draw or Saguntino
55%

Winning margin

Intercity wins by 2+
21%
Saguntino wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Intercity 1+ goals
76%
Intercity 2+ goals
41%
Intercity 3+ goals
17%
Saguntino 1+ goals
66%
Saguntino 2+ goals
29%
Saguntino 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Intercity (draw refunded)
61%
Saguntino (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Intercity at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Saguntino away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Intercity attack 1.72 + Saguntino defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.41

Saguntino attack 1.18 + Intercity defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Intercity scores more
45%
level
27%
Saguntino scores more
29%

Intercity at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Intercity 1–1 Saguntino

Intercity and Saguntino drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Poliesportiu Sant Joan d'Alacant in San Juan de Alicante.