Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Intercity vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Intercity
Intercity
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
5/18/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Intercity39%
×Draw28%
Real Madrid II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Intercity
1.23
Real Madrid II
1.09

Intercity creates 13% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Intercity
1.18
Real Madrid II
0.98

allows per match

Intercity
1.21
Real Madrid II
1.28

finishing

Intercity+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intercity ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Intercity or draw
68%
Intercity or Real Madrid II
72%
Draw or Real Madrid II
61%

Winning margin

Intercity wins by 2+
17%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Intercity 1+ goals
71%
Intercity 2+ goals
35%
Intercity 3+ goals
13%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
66%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
30%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Intercity (draw refunded)
55%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Intercity at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Intercity attack 1.18 + Real Madrid II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Real Madrid II attack 0.98 + Intercity defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Intercity scores more
39%
level
28%
Real Madrid II scores more
32%

Intercity at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Intercity vs Real Madrid II

Real Madrid II beat Intercity 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Solana in Alicante.