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Intercity vs Real Betis II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Intercity
Intercity
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Betis II
Real Betis II
1/26/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Intercity45%
×Draw27%
Real Betis II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Intercity
1.39
Real Betis II
1.05

Intercity creates 32% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Intercity
1.18
Real Betis II
0.89

allows per match

Intercity
1.21
Real Betis II
1.60

finishing

Intercity+0.00on par
Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intercity ↓

Real Betis II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Intercity or draw
72%
Intercity or Real Betis II
73%
Draw or Real Betis II
55%

Winning margin

Intercity wins by 2+
21%
Real Betis II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Intercity 1+ goals
75%
Intercity 2+ goals
40%
Intercity 3+ goals
16%
Real Betis II 1+ goals
65%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
28%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Intercity (draw refunded)
61%
Real Betis II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Intercity at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Intercity attack 1.18 + Real Betis II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Real Betis II attack 0.89 + Intercity defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Intercity scores more
45%
level
27%
Real Betis II scores more
28%

Intercity at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Intercity vs Real Betis II

Intercity and Real Betis II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Solana in Alicante.