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Intercity vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Intercity
Intercity
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
2/25/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Intercity43%
×Draw25%
Linares Deportivo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Intercity
1.50
Linares Deportivo
1.23

Intercity creates 22% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Intercity
1.18
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Intercity
1.21
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Intercity+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intercity ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Intercity or draw
69%
Intercity or Linares Deportivo
75%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
57%

Winning margin

Intercity wins by 2+
21%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Intercity 1+ goals
78%
Intercity 2+ goals
44%
Intercity 3+ goals
19%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
71%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
35%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Intercity (draw refunded)
58%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Intercity at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Intercity attack 1.18 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.50

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Intercity defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Intercity scores more
43%
level
25%
Linares Deportivo scores more
31%

Intercity at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Intercity 1–3 Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Intercity 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Solana in Alicante.